George Soros thinks commercial real estate will drop at least 30%
Distressed sellers like Broadway Partners are selling office properties +30% less than what they paid in 2006.
– – But has this been discounted in the price of Commercial REIT’s like SLG, and VNO, which are are down 80%?
“Commercial real estate has not yet fallen in value,” Soros, speaking at a forum in Washington, said. “It is inevitable, it is written, everybody knows it, there are already some transactions which reflect and anticipate it, so we know, they will drop at least 30 percent.”
U.S. commercial real estate values have fallen 30 percent from the 2007 peak as cheap financing disappeared and the recession reduced occupancies, RREFF, the real estate investment unit of Deutsche Bank AG, said yesterday in its 2009 forecast. Total returns in a commercial property index used by pension funds may decline as much as 11 percent this year, the group said.