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Blackstone (NYSE: BX) has gotten some action in the past 10 days. Trader Mark is bullish on the stock, based on the Patton-theory “I’d rather have him (General Patton) inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in” . i.e. they will cash in on the Tim Geithner program.
Also a key point: The possible resumption of the juicy dividend later this year. Chief Operating Officer Tony James declared that adjusted cashflow in 2009 would be more than sufficient to allow the company to reinstate the full annual distribution of $1.20 per share to shareholders.
PLUS: The conspiracy angle: With China’s government holding a huge stake purchased around $30, there is some political support for this stock to not fail. Of course, the “too big to fail theory” has a lot of holes these days….
Here’s the excerpt from Trader Mark:
For all its faults, there is some merit to this sector and the management team – if nothing else – knows how to make a buck. And the government is now pledging as a fix to our era of opaque transparency & high leverage – well, a return to opaque transparency and high leverage! Let’s do this folks! The stock, after plummeting to below $4, has now rebounded substantially, and the new Tim Geithner taxpayer giveaway has lit a rocket fuse the past week and a half as the stock sprung to >$9. Effectively money will be taken out of your pocket and given to these type of firms.
Since no one in the government listens to the peasants’ complaints, all we can try to do is spit in the wind on blogs, write letters to Congresspeople who could care less, and make some bucks on our own dollars by investing with those who get our largess…. i.e. as our money is given away, try to make some money on the back end by those who will be making super profits using our generosity. It sounds facetious, but this was the same reason to invest in oil stocks latter 2007 to summer 2008; if you were going to get taken to the bank at the pump you might as well hedge that with some gains on stocks that benefited from the rampant speculation. Same thesis here.
(Disclosure: I am long BX)